After a formidable rookie season for the Rockies in 2023, Nolan Jones struggled mightily final 12 months, lacking roughly two and a half months resulting from recurring decrease again woes and a left knee damage, and slipping beneath substitute degree when he was in a position to play. On Saturday, the Rockies traded him again to the Guardians — the group that initially drafted and developed him — in alternate for superutilityman Tyler Freeman. It’s puzzling to see the Rockies punt a participant who only a 12 months in the past seemed to be a franchise cornerstone, notably as their acquisition of Freeman is pushed by the lack of beginning second baseman Thairo Estrada to a damaged wrist, a short-term drawback contemplating Colorado is unlikely to contend this season.
The 26-year-old Jones hit simply .227/.321/.320 (70 wRC+) with three homers in 297 plate appearances for the Rockies final season whereas splitting his time between left and proper discipline. His 67-point drop from his 137 wRC+ in 2023 tied for the second largest within the majors:
Largest Drops in wRC+ From 2023 to ’24
Minimal 250 plate appearances in each seasons.
Whereas Jones has proven that he could be a productive main leaguer, the identical can’t but be mentioned for the 25-year-old Freeman, who hit .209/.305/.321 with seven homers in 383 PA for the Guardians final 12 months whereas primarily enjoying middle discipline however recognizing at second base, shortstop, and third base. His 84 wRC+ was his highest mark in elements of three main league seasons, which isn’t saying a lot.
The Guardians drafted Jones within the second spherical in 2016 out of a Philadelphia highschool, and he made our Prime 100 Prospects record yearly from from 2019-22 on the energy of a robust arm and 70-grade uncooked energy from the left aspect, peaking at no. 52 in 2021 as a 50-FV prospect. Initially a 3rd baseman, he was blocked in Cleveland by perennial All-Star José Ramírez, and at a listed 6-foot-4, 220 kilos, Jones outgrew the place bodily. He performed 28 video games with the Guardians, primarily for granted fielder, in 2022, however his inventory slipped as he transitioned away from third base and struggled to make contact on the main league degree. On November 15, 2022, the Guardians traded him to the Rockies in alternate for center infielder Juan Brito, a 50-FV prospect who positioned at no. 78 on this 12 months’s Prime 100.
After tearing up the Pacific Coast League at first of 2023, Jones obtained the decision from the Rockies and put collectively a formidable rookie season, hitting .297/.389/.542 with 20 homers and 20 steals in 106 video games — a tempo that may have put him within the 30/30 membership over the course of a full season — whereas main the group in wRC+ (137) and WAR (3.8), and ending fourth within the NL Rookie of the Yr voting. But he struggled out of the gate in 2024, then missed all of Could and the primary half of June resulting from a decrease again pressure; he had been bothered by again points in spring coaching however they weren’t deemed critical sufficient on the time to sideline him. Whereas rehabbing from the again damage, he sprained his left knee, prolonging his rehab. Upon returning in mid-June, he had extra success in that his stroll charge improved, however his energy didn’t materialize.
Jones landed on the IL once more simply earlier than the All-Star break as his again points returned. In late July, he conceded that he had been urgent on the plate, saying, “It’s been a bodily and psychological battle for me this 12 months, and I’m making an attempt to remain optimistic and know that my time is coming.” His time would get tougher first. On August 4, his fiancée Morgan Gougher gave delivery to daughter Kamryn, however the pleasure of the event was tempered by a well being scare. The new child struggled to breathe resulting from fluid in her lungs, spent three days within the neonatal intensive care unit, and required supplemental oxygen for greater than a month; fortunately, she is now wholesome. Jones lastly returned to the lineup on August 20, however nonetheless confirmed little signal of the facility or velocity that characterised his 2023 season.
Right here’s how his season regarded when it comes to conventional stats:
Nolan Jones 2023 vs. 2024
| Break up | PA | HR | BB% | Ok% | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Complete | 424 | 20 | 12.5% | 29.7% | .297 | .389 | .542 | 137 |
| By way of April 28 | 103 | 1 | 8.7% | 35.9% | .170 | .243 | .277 | 31 |
| June 14–July 11 | 88 | 2 | 18.2% | 29.5% | .246 | .391 | .362 | 105 |
| August 21 Onward | 106 | 0 | 10.4% | 26.4% | .269 | .340 | .333 | 79 |
| 2024 Complete | 297 | 3 | 12.1% | 30.6% | .227 | .321 | .320 | 70 |
Jones at all times had a tall process forward of him to copy his 2023 numbers, which had been pushed by a .401 batting common on balls in play offsetting a strikeout charge simply shy of 30%. Because the splits present, he had little probability to settle in throughout any of these three stretches in 2024. A spike in stroll charge drove his manufacturing throughout that center interval, and it’s truthful to marvel how a lot his drop in swing charge (from 41.5% general in 2023 to 39.9% final 12 months, although by no means various by greater than a few level throughout these three stretches) was pushed by a want to keep away from the ache of taking an enormous reduce and lacking.
Because it occurs, Statcast’s bat-tracking metrics illustrate that Jones not solely didn’t swing as onerous as he did within the second half of 2023 (the info for which had been not too long ago launched), however he additionally swung onerous a lot much less typically because the 2024 season progressed and reduce down the size of his swing. As soon as he did, he was in a position to sq. the ball up with larger frequency, however he didn’t hit it as onerous, and barely barreled it:
Nolan Jones 2023 vs. 2024, Statcast
| Break up | Avg Bat Velocity | Quick Swing | SquaredUp% | Blast% | Size | BBE | EV | Brl% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Complete | 72.4 | 27.6% | 19.1% | 10.8% | 6.8 | 242 | 90.1 | 15.7% | 41.3% |
| By way of April 28 | 71.8 | 24.3% | 24.3% | 6.5% | 6.8 | 57 | 89.2 | 3.5% | 42.1% |
| June 14–July 11 | 71.0 | 18.5% | 20.0% | 11.1% | 6.9 | 45 | 88.2 | 6.7% | 53.3% |
| August 21 Onward | 69.8 | 10.7% | 27.0% | 6.9% | 6.6 | 67 | 87.4 | 7.5% | 40.3% |
| 2024 Complete | 70.7 | 17.0% | 23.9% | 8.2% | 6.7 | 169 | 88.2 | 5.9% | 44.4% |
Jones’ 2023 barrel charge positioned within the 94th percentile. He didn’t have sufficient batted ball occasions to qualify for Statcast’s leaderboard in 2024, however his barrel charge positioned within the thirty eighth percentile amongst gamers with not less than 50 BBE. His general charge of pulling the ball within the air dropped from a middling 14.9% in 2023 to a meager 10.1% in ’24, along with his xSLG falling from .499 to .322.
All of which is to say that it’s fairly clear Jones wasn’t at his greatest in 2024, both bodily or mentally. He’s been hitting the ball tougher this spring (90.9 mph common exit velocity) however with out a lot energy, so it’s not but apparent that he’s again to his earlier kind. Nonetheless, it’s not as if the Rockies moved him to make room for a greater outfielder, as neither 23-year-old Zac Veen (40+ FV) nor 22-year-old Yanquiel Fernandez (45 FV) have had success in Triple-A; Veen was optioned on Sunday, someday after the commerce, whereas Fernandez was despatched down earlier this month. Jones gained’t even be arbitration eligible till after this season, so he nonetheless has 4 full years of membership management remaining.
What’s additionally not clear but is the place Jones will match into the Guardians lineup. Steven Kwan is the starter in left discipline, and Lane Thomas is in middle, although he’s coming off an uneven season; after hitting for a 107 wRC+ with Washington, he was traded to Cleveland in late July and posted an 84 wRC+ the remainder of the way in which. Previous to the Jones commerce, lefty Will Brennan and righty Jhonkensy Noel had been on monitor to platoon as a part of a bunch that ranked simply twenty second in our Positional Energy Rankings. The 27-year-old Brennan had an underwhelming season (.264/.309/.388, 98 wRC+, 0.5 WAR) in 2024, whereas the 23-year-old Noel was extra productive, bopping 13 homers in 198 PA whereas batting .218/.288/.486 (118 wC+) with 0.6 WAR. Each have choices remaining, whereas Jones doesn’t.
In accordance to supervisor Stephen Vogt, the scenario is in flux:
“I had knowledgeable Will that he was going to be on the opening day roster,” mentioned Vogt. “With the commerce occurring as rapidly because it did, I advised him that’s now up within the air.
“No closing selections have been made. We simply should work via some issues over the subsequent few days. This was unexpected. Once you make a transfer or a commerce, folks get affected by it. We now have to type out what the perfect roster for us seems to be like.”
Jones, Brennan, and Kwan all have a smattering of middle discipline expertise on the massive league degree, however not sufficient to attract any conclusions from apart from that they’re higher off in nook outfield spots. To those eyes, essentially the most logical match is a Jones/Noel platoon in proper discipline, with Brennan backing up Thomas in middle.
Whereas the Guardians are getting a proper fielder who’s obtained some energy, the Rockies are getting a distinct kind of participant in Freeman, a second-round choose in 2017 out of a Rancho Cucamonga, California highschool. Like Jones, he was a perennial determine on Prime 100 lists, making ours thrice (2020–22), peaking at no. 88 as a 50-FV prospect in 2021 on the energy of a contact-oriented, skills-over-tools profile. He appeared certain for second base and drew comparability to DJ LeMahieu.
With Andrés Giménez locking down second base till he was dealt to the Blue Jays in December, and with Cleveland larger on Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias as its shortstop choices, the Guardians moved Freeman to middle discipline final 12 months. He made a team-high 97 appearances there (82 begins), however he landed on the Substitute Stage Killers record and was displaced by the acquisition of Thomas, after which he spent chunk of his time bouncing across the infield, making 10 appearances at shortstop, eight at third base, and 6 at second base. His outfield protection was stable (3 DRS, 0 FRV), however his bat was not. His 87.7 mph common exit velocity positioned within the twenty second percentile, his 34.6% hard-hit charge within the twenty first, his .338 xSLG within the eleventh, and his 3.2% barrel charge within the sixth.
The Rockies like Freeman’s versatility and have an instantaneous opening for him at second base. After non-tendering former Gold Glove winner Brendan Rodgers final 12 months, they signed Estrada to a one-year deal in January to be their beginning second baseman, however he’ll be out 4 to eight weeks with a proper wrist fracture, ensuing from a hit-by-pitch final Thursday.
“The power to play a wide range of positions – let’s say the triangle within the center, quick, second and middle – provides us some versatility,” Rockies basic supervisor Invoice Schmidt mentioned of Freeman. “There’s a velocity part. He’s a contact hitter. I classify him as a ‘baseball participant.’”
It’s that form of situational consciousness and long-term planning that has the Rockies on monitor to win 63 video games, based on our Playoff Odds. The Guardians could not seem like a playoff group proper now regardless of reaching the ALCS final 12 months — they’re forecast for simply 79 wins — however they obtained the higher participant on this swap, one who can additional their efforts to contend.